联系我们 【新刊速递】《安全筹商》(SS), Vol. 33, No. 3, 2024 | 国政学东说念主
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期刊简介
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《安全筹商》（Security Studies）收录出书创新性的学术稿件——不管是表面筹商、践诺教会共享依然两者俱收并蓄。安全筹商包含时常的议题，从核扩散、核威慑、军民关系、计策文化、种族打破、流行病与国度安全、民主政事、酬酢决议到定性与屡治安筹商的发展。2024年该期刊影响因子为2.464。
本期目次
武汉三镇多名球员就欠薪向中国足球和国际足联提出仲裁：
周三050 欧洲杯 荷兰VS英格兰 2024-07-11 03:00
1
军事效用与海战
Military Effectiveness and Naval Warfare
2
核不使用的盲点：考试
Testing as the Blindspot of Nuclear Nonuse
3
改进政府、率性与干戈：第二次卡拉巴赫干戈的案例
Revolutionary Governments, Recklessness, and War: The Case of the Second Karabakh War
4
要挟构建与威慑果然度
Threat Construction and Coercive Credibility
5
逃离瘫痪：支吾分手称核升级的策略
Escaping Paralysis: Strategies for Countering Asymmetric Nuclear Escalation
内容提要
军事效用与海战
题目：Military Effectiveness and Naval Warfare
作家：Stephen Biddle,哥伦比亚大学国外与内行事务指示、酬酢关系委员会国防政策兼职高档筹商员。John Severini,约翰-塞韦里尼当今是乔治敦大学政府学博士生。
提要：军事恶果促进了政事学文件的增长。关联词，这些著述绝大巨额侧重于大陆干戈。中国的崛起突显了海战。文件的中枢论断是否适用于海战？咱们通过一个对于 1649 年至 1988 年间国度间水面海战的新数据集来比较海战和陆战模式，从而探讨这一问题。咱们发现，海上和陆地的军事环境截然有异，这使得海战扫尾对物资愈加明锐，愈加速速，也愈加单方面，因此两者存在内容区别。关联词，在物资与非物资的互相作用方面也有紧迫的相同之处。这些特色对将来东亚反介入/区域拒止（A2/AD）干戈的政策、舟师资源分派中手段和物资插足的均衡以及军事效用筹商齐有紧迫影响。
Military effectiveness created a growth in political science literature. However, this work focused overwhelmingly on continental warfare. China’s rise highlights naval warfare. Do the central findings of the literature hold for war at sea? We explore this question by comparing naval and land combat patterns via a new dataset on interstate surface naval battles fought between 1649 and 1988. We find essential differences deriving from the contrasting nature of the sea and land as military environments, which have made naval outcomes more sensitive to materiel, quicker, and more one-sided. There are, however, also important similarities involving material–nonmaterial interactions. These features pose important implications for policy on future anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) warfare in East Asia, the balance of investment in skill and materiel in naval resource allocation, and research on military effectiveness.
核不使用的盲点：考试
题目：Testing as the Blindspot of Nuclear Nonuse
作家：Ruoyu Li, 约翰霍普金斯大学政事学系。
提要：太平洋激进派声称核考试即是核使用，这对国外关系（IR）学科中的核不使用看法提倡了挑战。在支吾这一挑战的同期，本文还揭示了相干核考试的学科盲点，即核考试与核使用不符。我合计，斯科特·萨根（Scott Sagan）和肯尼斯·华尔兹（Kenneth N. Waltz）对于核威慑的申辩以及妮娜·坦南瓦尔德（Nina Tannenwald）的核禁忌框架所体现的对于不使用核火器的国外关系接洽是殖民学问坐褥的一部分，这种学问坐褥狡辩了从属国东说念主民的政事能动性和东说念主性。本文以好意思国在马绍尔群岛进行的核火器考试（1946-58 年）为例，对核考试进行了后殖民目的的重新评释，从而论证了核考试是核使用的一种方法，特殊是核火器的殖民使用。
Pacific activists’ proclamation that nuclear testing is nuclear use poses a challenge to the notion of nuclear nonuse in the discipline of International Relations (IR). While addressing such a challenge, this article reveals a disciplinary blind spot regarding nuclear testing that disqualifies testing from nuclear use. I argue that IR discussions of nuclear nonuse—exemplified by Scott Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz’s debates on nuclear deterrence and Nina Tannenwald’s nuclear taboo framework—are part of the colonial knowledge production that dismisses the political agency and humanity of colonized people. This article then argues that nuclear testing is a form of nuclear use, specifically, the colonial use of nuclear weapons, by developing a postcolonial reinterpretation of nuclear testing in the case of US nuclear weapon tests in the Marshall Islands (1946–58).
改进政府、率性与干戈：第二次卡拉巴赫干戈的案例
题目：Revolutionary Governments, Recklessness, and War: The Case of the Second Karabakh War
作家：Arman Grigoryan,利哈伊大学国外关系系副指示。
提要：改进政事环境的特色是逆向选拔的压力。它进步了最激进、最易发生打破、最乐于冒险的类型，而这些东说念主又培育进度低，枯竭在朝教会。他们是平常的反唯物目的者，合计只好付出迷漫的死力和通晓，施行就不错按照他们的意愿来转换。改进者领有遍及的理思和救世想象，频繁不会容忍调解和还价还价。对他们来说，要兑现这些思法，任何代价齐不算太高。当改进者收受一个与其他国度发生打破的国度时，这些倾向很可能也会影响他们对打破的解决，联系我们并可能带来不温暖肠的后果。亚好意思尼亚改进政府的酬酢政策导致了 2020 年第二次卡拉巴赫干戈和亚好意思尼亚方面的不温暖肠失败。
Revolutionary politics is an environment characterized by pressures for adverse selection. It elevates the most radical, conflict-prone, risk happy types, who in addition are poorly educated and inexperienced in government. They are vulgar anti-materialists who think reality can be bent to their will with sufficient effort and perseverance. Revolutionaries are possessed with grandiose ideas and salvation projects, which typically do not tolerate compromise and bargaining. Nor any cost seems too high to them for the realization of such ideas. When revolutionaries take over in a country that has a conflict with another state, these propensities are likely to affect their management of the conflict as well with potentially catastrophic consequences. The argument is illustrated with the diplomacy of Armenia’s revolutionary government, which led to the Second Karabakh War of 2020 and the Armenian side’s catastrophic defeat.
要挟构建与强制果然度
题目：Threat Construction and Coercive Credibility
作家：Danielle L. Lupton, 科尔盖特大学政事学副指示。
提要：在国外危急中，看成体奈何发出果然的要挟？传统的学术筹商侧重于要挟的布景奈何影响果然度，而本文则研讨要挟本人的构建奈何影响果然度。更具体地说，本文引入了 "要挟事理 "这一看法，并从表面上分析了带领者在传达要挟时所选拔的解释是奈何影响其强制性果然度的。本筹商经受了集结想象造访实验，以笃定要挟的具体性和严重性、公开要挟与私东说念主要挟以及要挟事理对果然度感知的影响。本文发现，更精准的要挟被合计更果然，而经受声誉事理的要挟果然度较低。有极一丝凭证标明，公开或擅自愿出要挟会影响果然度。本文还发现，受众是国内依然国外，以及危急诱因的严重进度齐会影响东说念主们对果然度的看法。本筹商进一步加深了咱们对塑造强制性果然度的成分以及决议者如安在国外危急中最有用地传达其甘心的意会。
How do actors issue credible threats during international crises? While scholarship has traditionally focused on how the context of threats influences credibility, this paper considers how the construction of the threat itself affects credibility. More specifically, this paper introduces the concept of threat justification and theorize how the choice of explanation a leader uses in communicating her threats can influence her coercive credibility. This study employs a conjoint design survey experiment to identify the influence of threat specificity and severity, public versus private threats, and threat justification on perceptions of credibility. This paper finds that more precise threats are perceived as more credible, while threats employing reputational justifications are less credible. There is a minimal amount of evidence that the public versus private delivery of a threat influences credibility. This paper also finds that perceptions of credibility are influenced by whether the audience is domestic versus international and by the severity of the instigating crisis trigger. This study furthers our understanding of the factors shaping coercive credibility and how policymakers can most effectively convey their commitments during international crises.
逃离瘫痪：支吾分手称核升级的策略
题目：Escaping Paralysis: Strategies for Countering Asymmetric Nuclear Escalation
作家：Even Hellan Larsen, 挪威奥斯陆大学政事学系的博士筹商员。
提要：领有核火器的国度在与领有核火器的敌手进行初级别的打破时频频方寸已乱，因为发怵引起核反击。本文将这种情况称为 "次计策瘫痪"。核火器国度试图解脱这种瘫痪景色的选拔进行了分类：反价值处分计策通过反价值核挫折进行威慑；旧例暂停计策通过旧例响应将进一步升级的职守转嫁给敌手，从而起到威慑作用；挫伤适度计策通过在核干戈中适度挫伤的智商进行威慑；临了，舌剑唇枪计策通过在所有这个词打破级别上的干戈制胜智商来进行威慑。为了解脱次计策瘫痪，苏联和印度在转向旧例停顿计策之前，开端依赖于反价值处分。印度未能解脱瘫痪景色，因此运行寻求挫伤适度计策。比较之下，好意思国则奉行舌剑唇枪的计策，以放弃次计策瘫痪。
States armed with nuclear weapons are often hesitant to engage in low levels of conflict against rivals armed with nuclear weapons for fear of provoking a nuclear response. I refer to this condition as “substrategic paralysis.” I provide a typology of the options for nuclear weapon states trying to escape this paralysis. A countervalue punishment strategy deters through countervalue nuclear retaliation. A conventional pause strategy deters by shifting the burden of further escalation back onto the adversary with a conventional response. A damage limitation strategy deters through the ability to limit damage in a nuclear war. Finally, a tit-for-tat strategy discourages through a war-winning capability at all conflict levels. To escape substrategic paralysis, the Soviet Union and India initially relied on countervalue punishment before moving toward a conventional pause strategy. India’s failure to escape paralysis triggered a search for a damage limitation strategy. In contrast, the United States pursues a tit-for-tat strategy to neutralize substrategic paralysis.
编译 | 柳博文
审校 | 赖永祯
排版 | 赵兴岳
本文源于《安全筹商》2024年第3期，本文为公益共享，做事于科研教学，不代表本平台不雅点。如有松驰，接待指正。
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